POLITIQ

Newly published figures have shown a decline in net migration from 906,000 in June 2023 to 728,000 in June 2024.

The prevailing consensus is that net migration is too high. The prime minister, Keir Starmer, took the newly published figures as an opportunity to bite into the previous administration's failures, criticising his predecessors’ failed “open borders experiment”.

86 per cent of migrants arriving in the UK in 2024 were from non-EU countries, while migrants from the EU only made up 10 per cent of the overall figure. Going back to pre-Brexit debates and discussions, those in favour of the UK leaving the EU championed the fact that immigration would fall. Boris Johnson’s “Take back control” slogan embodied this sentiment, without recognising the reality that stood him and his government in the face.

The figures seem high when observed out of context but, upon closer inspection, highlight structural issues in the UK’s fragile labour market. According to the ONS, the majority of migrants, both in 2023 and 2024, arrived on either work-related or study visas. The previous government’s raising of the income threshold for dependents and the nature of students returning to their home countries at the end of their studies reflect a 20 per cent fall from mid-2023 to 2024.

The Conservative Party did not become a pro-immigration party across the whims of its time in government, its policy platform for large parts of its time in government, reflected the condition of the UK labour market.

A report published by The Edge Foundation for 2024 goes into a granular analysis of the multiple sectors where skill shortages have been a pressing issue. It highlights health and social care, business and wholesale and retail sectors, three main sectors acutely impacted by skill shortages. The health and social care sector, who make up a large proportion of the newly published immigration figures, has “struggled to cope with shortages even before the pandemic,” the report says. Changing working conditions and Britain’s exit from the EU are cited factors impacting the health and social care sector.

Immigration has long been a stop-gap used to plug skill shortages and suppress the dying embers of the UK’s frail labour market. Polling shows that the electorate has become increasingly concerned about the rise of immigration, not least as a result of divisive politicians playing into an anti-foreign narrative.

Politicians can easily fall into the trap of extensive polling and focus groups before dealing with the issue at its core. The UK has a structural problem at the heart of its economy; cutting its supply to short-term stability will only serve as a short-term remedy to the country’s long-term sickness.

The leader of the opposition would be remiss not to consider the underlying economic and systemic factors at play. Similarly, the Prime Minister risks appearing overly simplistic by pledging a reduction in net migration without addressing the foundational issues underpinning the nation’s challenges. The nature of politics often incentivises a focus on short-term, headline-grabbing measures, particularly in the context of securing victories in general elections, rather than tackling the deeper, more enduring problems.

After 14 years of opposition, Labour has assumed responsibility for the nation. It has two options: deal with the issue at its core or become self-consumed by its image management.